In the Middle East, is China pushing the US aside with Saudi-Iran diplomacy?

 

Saudi Arabia and Iran would normalize diplomatic relations after seven years without diplomatic relations. Bringing the two sides together was China's Cupid.

I told my friends about it and initially, they thought I was playing a prank on them.

Some members of Washington's foreign policy community will likely be busy this week discussing the implications of the development. The nation's capital has a lot of fast thinkers (some of whom may wish to spin the information in their favor). That's not to say that some theories haven't already been explored in the newspapers or on the internet.

As far as the prevailing analysis goes, Riyadh has chosen to cooperate with Tehran because of the antipathy and lack of support the Biden administration and Democrats in Congress have shown Saudi Arabia. The latest grievance is Washington's lackadaisical response to the news that Iran is enriching uranium to a level just short of 84 percent, a level very close to bomb-grade. 

How long has White House promises been kept about Iran not being allowed to build a nuclear bomb?

Up till recently, it had been the expected stance of Saudi Arabia to move in tandem with Iran if it displayed the capability or meant to construct a nuclear bomb - something which Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman asserted in his interview with CBS News. But recently, the Saudis seem to have reversed their stance, demonstrating an inclination towards de-escalating conflict with Iran and even seemingly considering “coexisting” with them - a suggestion made by President Obama in an interview he gave to The Atlantic magazine two years ago that was previously disregarded as ludicrous.

According to a cautious interpretation of the normalization, which is scheduled to take place in two months, it is part of a carefully orchestrated peace deal in Yemen, where Iranian-backed Houthi rebels occupy the capital of Sana despite Saudi Arabia's determined efforts to evict them (both financially and in terms of humanitarian costs).

The news was met with disbelief, particularly concerning China's involvement. Beijing had largely taken a commercial stance in the area before now, other than during the Iran-Iraq war when it supplied arms to both sides. Furthermore, over the weekend, it came out that China is proposing a summit of all Gulf states. It can be assumed that many of these nations, if not all, would agree for economic reasons; however, the response could be mixed if Beijing declared they'd have to pay a discounted price for oil in exchange.

This fascinating development, as well as the possibility of more to come, must be analyzed analytically concerning the other case of “normalization,” which had been absorbing Washington's attention: whether or when Saudi Arabia will normalize relations with Israel. Riyadh may not want to pursue that option anymore. For Israel, however, the issue of a possible Iranian nuclear weapon still looms large.

In the next two months, if the show continues on the road, much will become more apparent.