US is likely to oblige the request from Iran’s PM to set a deadline to be announced for the withdrawal of the US to combat forces

Prime Minister of Iraq Mustafa al-Kadhemi is scheduled to meet US President Joe Biden the following week to discuss a complete US troop withdrawal from Iraq. The White House talks between the two allies come just a week after a deadly attack claimed by the Islamic State group, despite Baghdad declaring the Sunni extremists defeated over three years ago.

Kadhemi finds himself backed into a corner by the influence of Iran. Iran already had been a long-standing arch-nemesis for the US. Inspite of the common enmity from the US and Iran toward IS, Kadhemi is under intense pressure from pro-Tehran armed factions who demand the withdrawal of 2,500 US troops still deployed in Iraq. PM says that there will be no U.S. military forces in a combat role by the end of the year. They anticipate some force adjustments in line with that commitment. 

The Biden-Kadhemi meeting may be cosmetically shaped to help the Iraqi premier alleviate domestic pressures, but the reality on the ground will reflect the status quo and an enduring US presence. Mardini points to political costs for Biden. He was going to authorize a full withdrawal of US troops, stemming from the catastrophic legacy of the 2011 withdrawal, which created a vacuum exploited by IS during their lightning 2014 offensive. It took a three-year military onslaught, heavily supported by a US-led coalition at the invitation of Iraq, to wrest back all the urban centres the Sunni jihadists seized.

IS currently operates from remote mountainous and desert regions, activating cells for attacks. This also included the recent market bomb attack of Baghdad. Along with terrorist activities, there have been electricity shortages, endemic corruption, murders of activists which are blamed on pro-Iran armed groups. Iran’s PM will also seek to secure a softening of US sanctions in respect to Iran to help Iraq’s crucial transactions with its neighbor and tackle the power crisis.